It’s been a tough year in retail: Every week, there seems to be a new store closure; Trump’s tariffs have jacked up prices; inflation has led to a decline in consumer spending and a recession seems imminent. And yet, despite these troubling signs of economic strain, things are looking up as we turn toward the 2025 holiday shopping season.
On Monday, Adobe Analytics released its online shopping forecast for the 2025 holiday season, covering the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025. The report predicts that online holiday spending will grow by 5.3% year-over-year, reaching $253.4 billion in sales.
Cyber Monday is expected to drive a significant amount of those sales, at $14.2 billion, making it the biggest online shopping day of the year, followed by Black Friday at $11.7 billion.
Last year, mobile shopping emerged as a key channel for consumers to purchase their gifts. For 2025, this momentum is expected to continue, with mobile devices predicted to account for 56.1% of online spending. This would solidify m-commerce as the primary shopping platform, officially dethroning desktop-based purchasing.
Electronics, apparel and furniture shopping will drive online spending, predicts the report, followed by smaller luxuries like groceries and cosmetics. Adobe expects strong growth in the wellness category, particularly in health monitoring devices. Activity trackers are forecasted to see a 1,055% jump in online sales, alongside smartwatches (up 950%) and other bio-monitors (up 385%).
As promising as holiday spending looks, economic turmoil will still impact consumer behavior: Because shoppers are particularly budget-conscious this season, more customers will likely opt for Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) options. Adobe predicts that these installment services will drive $20.2 billion in online spend (up 11% YoY) — $2 billion more than last year.
Competitive discounts will be another way for shoppers to mitigate rising costs. Cyber Week will be prime to buy marked- down electronics, apparel and computers. Meanwhile, Thanksgiving will offer the deepest discounts for sporting goods, and Black Friday is the peak time for discounted TVs, toys and appliances.
That said, discount rates across select categories will be slightly lower than in previous holiday seasons. For example, electronics discounts are set to peak at 28% vs. 30.1% last year.
Other trends highlighted in the report include the use of social media and artificial intelligence (AI). The former is set to be a major growth driver for brands, with 51% shares of online purchases attributed to social traffic. (It’s a substantial jump from last year’s growth at 5% YoY.) The report credits affiliate programs and content creators with helping to turn social platforms into product discovery channels, ultimately driving sales.
But before they make those final purchases, there’s a good chance consumers will interact with generative AI-powered services. Adobe predicts AI will become a reliable holiday shopping assistant, helping with research, product recommendations, gift inspiration and finding deals. The report found there was a 1,300% surge in AI traffic last year. In 2025, it is expected to rise by 520% YoY, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving.
Source: Fashionista.com